The Energiewende at a Crossroad
Germany has set ambitious energy transition targets for 2030 under the Ampel coalition from which the country is currently far off track. To catch up within the next 4.5 years, it would need to multiply its rollout of renewables and grid infrastructure by two to four times compared to today, an acceleration unprecedented in both scale and speed.
While there has been some undeniable technical progress, the transformation seems to be held back by an inconsistent implementation, first and foremost when it comes to what was the initial and main driver of this transition: the replacement of fossil fuels. As Germany‘s emission reductions remain underwhelming and the country’s carbon intensity in electricity remains well above that of its neighbours, the gap between efforts and results is raising serious doubts about the effectiveness of the Energiewende.
Though the study doesn’t aim to factor in costs estimates or other economic considerations in the analysis, it was deemed worthwhile to provide a quick overview of the unprecedented financial effort that was put into this energy transition strategy before convincing ourselves that the technical approach itself may be questioned.
Indeed, as of today the Energiewende benefited from decades of massive public and private investments, far above that of countries sharing similar models and similar targets. According to the Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), and echoed by the Bundesrechnungshof, the cumulative cost of the energy transition in the electricity sector is projected to reach €520 billion by 2025. Our own analysis confirms this trend: since 2000, around €383 billion have been spent on support schemes for renewable electricity, €315 billion under the EEG and €68 billion from the federal budget since 2021. Add to that €55 billion for grid expansion and €10 billion for congestion management, and the total climbs to nearly €500 billion. Both estimations closing in on around 12.5 % of Germany’s annual GDP.
Looking ahead, the scale of investment will only grow. Germany needs an additional €1.1 trillion by 2045 to meet the Federal Climate Protection Act’s carbon neutrality target. Although the goal is reaffirmed by the government, the concrete steps being taken raise concerns. The 2025 „Klimafonds“ will channel €100 billion into infrastructure, but in parallel, the government has launched tenders for 20 GW of new gas-fired power plants to ensure grid stability. These tenders are branded as “technology-neutral,” but fossil gas remains at the centre of the concrete steps announced in support of this strategy. Meanwhile, nuclear fission is not mentioned in the coalition agreement, and political attention has shifted to experimental fusion projects, with the political aim of building the world’s first commercial fusion reactor.
This all represents a sharp pivot from earlier ambitions. Back in 2013, the Energiewende was expected to cost €1 trillion and reach completion by 2040. Today, that cost has doubled, the timeline has slipped, and Germany is dealing with rising energy prices, reduced industrial competitiveness, and greater import dependency. Members of Germany’s former expert councils are raising red flags: the current strategy is falling short across all three pillars: climate impact, security of supply, and affordability.
A particularly worrying signal is the recession of the German electric system. Since 2017, the consumption has decreased by more than 12 %, half of it from the industrial sector, reflecting the difficulties of the German industry to support the increasing electricity prices. Almost frighteningly, the near collapse of the total production is close to 25 % in the same time.
Deutsch (Sie) 
English (UK)