{"id":7812,"date":"2025-07-04T20:07:49","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T20:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/?p=7812"},"modified":"2025-07-07T06:28:43","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T06:28:43","slug":"a-realistic-and-climate-neutral-path-to-an-optimised-energy-system-in-germany-energy-balance-storage-and-low-carbon-electrification-including-nuclear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/a-realistic-and-climate-neutral-path-to-an-optimised-energy-system-in-germany-energy-balance-storage-and-low-carbon-electrification-including-nuclear\/","title":{"rendered":"A realistic and climate-neutral path to an optimised energy system in Germany: energy balance, storage and low carbon electrification including nuclear"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Energiewende at a Crossroad<\/span><\/h2>

Germany has set ambitious energy transition targets for 2030 under the Ampel coalition from which the country is currently far off track. To catch up within the next 4.5 years, it would need to multiply its rollout of renewables and grid infrastructure by two to four times compared to today,<\/strong><\/span> an acceleration unprecedented in both scale and speed.<\/p>

While there has been some undeniable technical progress, the transformation seems to be held back by an inconsistent implementation<\/strong><\/span>, first and foremost when it comes to what was the initial and main driver of this transition: the replacement of fossil fuels. As Germany\u2018s emission reductions remain underwhelming<\/strong><\/span> and the country\u2019s carbon intensity in electricity remains well above that of its neighbours, the gap between efforts and results is raising serious doubts about the effectiveness of the Energiewende<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>

Though the study doesn\u2019t aim to factor in costs estimates or other economic considerations in the analysis, it was deemed worthwhile to provide a quick overview of the unprecedented financial effort<\/strong><\/span> that was put into this energy transition strategy before convincing ourselves that the technical approach itself may be questioned.<\/p>

Indeed, as of today the Energiewende benefited from decades of massive public and private investments<\/strong><\/span>, far above that of countries sharing similar models and similar targets. According to the D\u00fcsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), and echoed by the Bundesrechnungshof, the cumulative cost of the energy transition in the electricity sector is projected to reach \u20ac520 billion by 2025<\/strong><\/span>. Our own analysis confirms this trend: since 2000, around \u20ac383 billion have been spent on support schemes for renewable electricity, \u20ac315 billion under the EEG and \u20ac68 billion from the federal budget since 2021. Add to that \u20ac55 billion for grid expansion and \u20ac10 billion for congestion management, and the total climbs to nearly \u20ac500 billion. Both estimations closing in on around 12.5 % of Germany\u2019s annual GDP<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>

Looking ahead, the scale of investment will only grow. Germany needs an additional \u20ac1.1 trillion by 2045<\/strong><\/span> to meet the Federal Climate Protection Act\u2019s carbon neutrality target. Although the goal is reaffirmed by the government, the concrete steps being taken raise concerns. The 2025 \u201eKlimafonds\u201c will channel \u20ac100 billion into infrastructure, but in parallel, the government has launched tenders for 20 GW of new gas-fired power plants to ensure grid stability. These tenders are branded as \u201ctechnology-neutral,\u201d but fossil gas remains at the centre of the concrete steps<\/strong><\/span> announced in support of this strategy. Meanwhile, nuclear fission is not mentioned in the coalition agreement, and political attention has shifted to experimental fusion projects, with the political aim of building the world\u2019s first commercial fusion reactor.<\/p>

This all represents a sharp pivot from earlier ambitions. Back in 2013, the Energiewende was expected to cost \u20ac1 trillion and reach completion by 2040. Today, that cost has doubled<\/strong><\/span>, the timeline has slipped, and Germany is dealing with rising energy prices, reduced industrial competitiveness, and greater import dependency<\/strong><\/span>. Members of Germany\u2019s former expert councils are raising red flags: the current strategy is falling short across all three pillars: climate impact, security of supply, and affordability.<\/p>

A particularly worrying signal is the recession of the German electric system. Since 2017, the consumption has decreased by more than 12 %, half of it from the industrial sector, reflecting the difficulties of the German industry to support the increasing electricity prices.<\/strong><\/span> Almost frighteningly, the near collapse of the total production is close to 25 % in the same time.<\/p>

A realistic and climate-neutral path to an optimised energy system in Germany: energy balance, storage and low carbon electrification including nuclear<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Energiewende at a Crossroad Germany has set ambitious energy transition targets for 2030 under the Ampel coalition from which the country is currently far off track. To catch up within the next 4.5 years, it would need to multiply its rollout of renewables and grid infrastructure by two to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-veroeffentlichungen"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7812"}],"version-history":[{"count":25,"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7812\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7841,"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7812\/revisions\/7841"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kernd.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}